How many people and number of countries effected.
12 May 2009
21 May 2009
29 June 2009
6th July 2009
Do you have Swine Flu?
What is swine flu?
What are the symptoms?
If you are experiencing flu-like symptoms. What should you do?
How dangerous is it?
What is a pandemic?
Should we be worried about it?
What is being done in the UK to prevent the infection?
Are the governments doing enough to fight the Swine Flu Pandemic?
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No need to Panic! or is there?
In reality we are told only what the governments want us to hear. The Swine Flu, is no longer to be taken lightly. The number of sick people over a weekend has increased from 2339 to 4379. That is almost 100% increase. It is no longer just a flu. It is killing people. The governments should do more.
In the UK the goverment is placing advertisements on TV & radio, but is that enough? Place your feedbacks here.
It is a contagious respiratory disease that usually affects pigs. It's caused by type A influenza viruses, and pigs are hit by regular outbreaks. There are many different types of swine flu. The current cases involve the H1N1 strain of type A influenza virus.
Doctors don't yet know how easily the virus spreads between people, but experts believe it spreads in the same way as seasonal flu - through coughing and sneezing.
What are the symptoms?
The symptoms of swine influenza in people are similar to the symptoms of a regular human seasonal influenza infection and include fever, fatigue, lack of appetite, coughing and a sore throat.
Some people with swine flu have also reported vomiting and diarrhea.
If you are experiencing flu-like symptoms. What should you do?
If you’ve recently been in the affected areas of Mexico and the USA, and are experiencing symptoms, stay at home and limit contact with other people.
You should then contact your GP by phone, not in person, or call NHS Direct on 0845 4647.
How dangerous is it?
So far thousands of people have been made ill by swine flu - with 314 cases proving fatal.
Tests show that the antiviral drugs oseltamavir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) appear to be effective against the human swine influenza H1N1 strain.
Should we be worried about it?
The World Health Organization has warned that the outbreak has "pandemic potential," and countries have been advised to step up surveillance and preparation in case the infection spreads rapidly.
Flu viruses have the ability to change and mutate, making it difficult for drugs manufacturers to ensure effective vaccines are available.
The new version of the H1N1 virus is a mix of different animal and human versions of the disease. Mixing can lead to the development of changed viruses to which humans have little immunity.
What is a pandemic?
When a virus spreads over a wide geographic area and affects a large proportion of the population it goes beyond an epidemic and becomes a pandemic.
Therefore, there is a risk that Swine Flu viruses could develop into a pandemic if the virus passes easily from human-to-human.
What is being done in the UK to prevent the infection spreading?
Absolutely nothing. The British Government has talked. We are waiting for the action. All house hold received a leaflet, but then what? That is not enough.
Surely the alarm bells must be ringing. The sick are now past 4000 in UK alone.
Adverts are not enough.
Is it enough? your comments
Are the governments doing enough?
Mexico City, one of the world's largest cities, has taken drastic steps to curb the virus' spread, starting with shutting down schools and on Tuesday expanding closures to gyms and swimming pools and even telling restaurants to limit service to takeout. People who venture out tend to wear masks in hopes of protection.
The number of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States rose to 66 in six states, with 45 in New York, 11 in California, six in Texas, two in Kansas and one each in Indiana and Ohio, but cities and states suspected more. In New York, the city's health commissioner said "many hundreds" of schoolchildren were ill at a school where some students had confirmed cases.
The new virus and the fatality count is at 49 and 1,626 illnesses across Mexico, said Health Secretary Jose Cordova, who called the death toll "more or less stable" even as hospitals are swamped with people who think they have swine flu. Based on figures from WHO 1626 swine flu patients are confirmed.
(on average the increase seems to be around 30% per day)
The positive news came as the swine flu appeared to spread from hundreds of students at a New York school who fell ill after a small group's spring break trip to Mexico, and confirmed cases were reported in New Zealand and Israel, joining the United States, Canada, Britain and Spain.
The United States stepped up surveillance at its borders and warned Americans to avoid non-essential travel to Mexico. Canada, Israel and France issued similar travel advisories.
Cuba became the first country to impose an outright ban on travel to the epicenter of the epidemic. Argentina soon followed with its own ban, and ordered 60,000 visitors who arrived from Canada, Mexico and the U.S. in the past 20 days to contact the Health Ministry.
Meanwhile, Mexico was eliminating reasons for tourists to visit. On Tuesday, the pyramids and all other archaeological sites were put off limits nationwide and restaurants in the capital were closed for all but take-out food in an aggressive bid to stop gatherings where the virus can spread.
"Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work, said: WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl, recalling the SARS epidemic earlier in the decade that killed 774 people, mostly in Asia, and slowed the global economy.
Instead, they say, governments should do more to provide medical help to people with swine flu symptoms, since the virus is proving to be treatable if diagnosed early.
U.S. officials stressed there is no need for panic, noting that flu outbreaks are quite common every year. The CDC estimates about 36,000 people in the U.S. alone died of flu-related causes each year, on average, in the 1990s.
Cordova said many of the people crowding hospital waiting rooms complaining of swine flu symptoms actually suffered from other ailments — and many of those suspected of having the virus were treated and sent home.
"You can see the total of new cases," Cordova said, pointing to bar charts that showed a rise and fall. "In the last days there has been a drop.
Is it enough? your comments
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8025994.stm
29 April 2009 press briefing
Listen to the audio of the 29 April 2009 press briefing [mp3 37 Mb]With Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General ai, Health Security and Environment
Free media player software from Microsoft
1976 Swine flue outbreak
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Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic
11 May 2009
The major determinant of the severity of an influenza pandemic, as measured by the number of cases of severe illness and deaths it causes, is the inherent virulence of the virus. However, many other factors influence the overall severity of a pandemic’s impact.
Even a pandemic virus that initially causes mild symptoms in otherwise healthy people can be disruptive, especially under the conditions of today’s highly mobile and closely interdependent societies. Moreover, the same virus that causes mild illness in one country can result in much higher morbidity and mortality in another. In addition, the inherent virulence of the virus can change over time as the pandemic goes through subsequent waves of national and international spread.
Properties of the virus
An influenza pandemic is caused by a virus that is either entirely new or has not circulated recently and widely in the human population. This creates an almost universal vulnerability to infection. While not all people ever become infected during a pandemic, nearly all people are susceptible to infection.
The occurrence of large numbers of people falling ill at or around the same time is one reason why pandemics are socially and economically disruptive, with a potential to temporarily overburden health services.
The contagiousness of the virus also influences the severity of a pandemic’s impact, as it can increase the number of people falling ill and needing care within a short timeframe in a given geographical area. On the positive side, not all parts of the world, or all parts of a country, are affected at the same time.
The contagiousness of the virus will influence the speed of spread, both within countries and internationally. This, too, can influence severity, as very rapid spread can undermine the capacity of governments and health services to cope.
Pandemics usually have a concentrated adverse impact in specific age groups. Concentrated illnesses and deaths in a young, economically productive age group will be more disruptive to societies and economies than when the very young or very old are most severely affected, as seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza.
Population vulnerability
The overall vulnerability of the population can play a major role. For example, people with underlying chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, asthma, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and several others, are more likely to experience severe or lethal infections. The prevalence of these conditions, combined with other factors such as nutritional status, can influence the severity of a pandemic in a significant way.
Subsequent waves of spread
The overall severity of a pandemic is further influenced by the tendency of pandemics to encircle the globe in at least two, sometimes three, waves. For many reasons, the severity of subsequent waves can differ dramatically in some or even most countries.
A distinctive feature of influenza viruses is that mutations occur frequently and unpredictably in the eight gene segments, and especially in the haemagglutinin gene. The emergence of an inherently more virulent virus during the course of a pandemic can never be ruled out.
Different patterns of spread can also influence the severity of subsequent waves. For example, if schoolchildren are mainly affected in the first wave, the elderly can bear the brunt of illness during the second wave, with higher mortality seen because of the greater vulnerability of elderly people.
During the previous century, the 1918 pandemic began mild and returned, within six months, in a much more lethal form. The pandemic that began in 1957 started mild, and returned in a somewhat more severe form, though significantly less devastating than seen in 1918. The 1968 pandemic began relatively mild, with sporadic cases prior to the first wave, and remained mild in its second wave in most, but not all, countries.
Capacity to respond
Finally, the quality of health services influences the impact of any pandemic. The same virus that causes only mild symptoms in countries with strong health systems can be devastating in other countries where health systems are weak, supplies of medicines, including antibiotics, are limited or frequently interrupted, and hospitals are crowded, poorly equipped, and under-staffed.
Assessment of the current situation
To date, the following observations can be made, specifically about the H1N1 virus, and more generally about the vulnerability of the world population. Observations specific to H1N1 are preliminary, based on limited data in only a few countries.
The H1N1 virus strain causing the current outbreaks is a new virus that has not been seen previously in either humans or animals. Although firm conclusions cannot be reached at present, scientists anticipate that pre-existing immunity to the virus will be low or non-existent, or largely confined to older population groups.
H1N1 appears to be more contagious than seasonal influenza. The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%.
With the exception of the outbreak in Mexico, which is still not fully understood, the H1N1 virus tends to cause very mild illness in otherwise healthy people. Outside Mexico, nearly all cases of illness, and all deaths, have been detected in people with underlying chronic conditions.
In the two largest and best documented outbreaks to date, in Mexico and the United States of America, a younger age group has been affected than seen during seasonal epidemics of influenza. Though cases have been confirmed in all age groups, from infants to the elderly, the youth of patients with severe or lethal infections is a striking feature of these early outbreaks.
In terms of population vulnerability, the tendency of the H1N1 virus to cause more severe and lethal infections in people with underlying conditions is of particular concern.
For several reasons, the prevalence of chronic diseases has risen dramatically since 1968, when the last pandemic of the previous century occurred. The geographical distribution of these diseases, once considered the close companions of affluent societies, has likewise shifted dramatically. Today, WHO estimates that 85% of the burden of chronic diseases is now concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. In these countries, chronic diseases show an earlier average age of onset than seen in more affluent parts of the world.
In these early days of the outbreaks, some scientists speculate that the full clinical spectrum of disease caused by H1N1 will not become apparent until the virus is more widespread. This, too, could alter the current disease picture, which is overwhelmingly mild outside Mexico.
Apart from the intrinsic mutability of influenza viruses, other factors could alter the severity of current disease patterns, though in completely unknowable ways, if the virus continues to spread.
Scientists are concerned about possible changes that could take place as the virus spreads to the southern hemisphere and encounters currently circulating human viruses as the normal influenza season in that hemisphere begins.
The fact that the H5N1 avian influenza virus is firmly established in poultry in some parts of the world is another cause for concern. No one can predict how the H5N1 virus will behave under the pressure of a pandemic. At present, H5N1 is an animal virus that does not spread easily to humans and only very rarely transmits directly from one person to another.
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